On May 10th 2001, Petroanalysis
dealt with a question that has now become the centre of world debate.
The report then said:
"The White House seems to be the sole holder of the truth. The
new leadership in the US is rediscovering the fact that the country's
present hydrocarbons production is insufficient and that it has been
declining in a similar way as it did from the late sixties to the
early seventies. At that time this situation was baptized as the 'energy
crisis' and marked a turning point in the industry's structure, history
and interrelations."
President George W. Bush's "National Energy Policy Report, May
2001", aims to "enhance energy security" by having
the United States work with allies to "expand the sources and
types of global energy supplied, especially in the Western Hemisphere,
Africa, Central Asia and the Caspian region."
Regarding this, Robert
E. Ebel, Director of the Energy Programme at the Centre for Strategic
and International Studies, explained in April 2002 that:
"The media seems to take particular pleasure in asking the question:
Are we (the US) in danger of running out of oil anytime soon? ...
No, we are not.
Since the end of World
War II, when it took over from a weakened Britain, the US has served
as the Western world's guarantor of Gulf stability. And on this question,
Michael Ledeen, member of the American Enterprise Institute, and key
intellectual in the group of neoconservatives shaping the Bush policy
considered, in March 2002, that:
"Iraq is a battle, not a war. We have to win the war, and the
only way to do that is to bring down the terror masters, and spread
freedom throughout the region.
Cohen and O'Driscoll argue that
"The Bush administration should provide leadership and guidance
for the future Iraqi government to undertake fundamental structural
economic reform. This process should include a massive, orderly, and
transparent privatization of state-owned enterprises, especially the
restructuring and privatization of the oil sector."
The importance of this for OPEC countries can be appreciated.
Furthermore, the question
of US-Russia oil relations is a core issue given the asymmetry of
power and the concept of a post-Post-Cold War World. This can be appreciated
by the remarks of Ambassador Richard N. Haass, Director, Policy Planning
Staff at the State Department, made in June 2002.
"Given today's international landscape, it is clearly in the
interest of both the US and Russia that Russia be fully integrated
into this post-Post-Cold War world... the United States and Russia
must accord a high priority to the economic and commercial aspect
of the relationship, including energy policy."
Going back a little in
history, on 11th September 1990, President George Bush senior delivered
a historic speech to the US Congress on Iraq's occupation of Kuwait.
He said the crisis offered a rare opportunity for co-operation:
"Out of these troubled times, a new world order can emerge: a
new era, freer from the threat of terror." He also spoke clearly
of "vital economic interests".